Mls · resolved market
Chicago Fire FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53ab02018f6d1ca9054b9b582690e8c9b8d0070f606504f363049d44e3fda674
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 59c | 1,108$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.89 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 605.68$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.94 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 42c | 533.29$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.98 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 26c | 529.23$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.63 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 34c | 518.04$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.33 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 473.65$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.89 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 55c | 354.54$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.51 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked Over | 31c | 341$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.54 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 42c | 310.29$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.32 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 62c | 280.48$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.51 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Under | 38c | 253.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 18c | 218.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 72c | 196.64$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 58c | 168.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Over | 26c | 76.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 29c | 69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 47c | 64.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 27c | 53.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 27c | 39.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Over | 68c | 35.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 73c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 76c | 14.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 2.5this page
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)Chicago Fire FC won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.