Mls · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12774ee130e6cda30229e5009001ae626f4abc4f00399ee2c4747984d45f49fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Fire FCof Chicago Fire FC, Sporting Kansas City
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Chicago Fire FC | 51c | 18,467$9,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,037.88 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Sporting Kansas City | 49c | 11,260$5,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,517.52 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4064…f741backed Sporting Kansas City | 46c | 7,975$3,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,668.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x443b…e8bbbacked Sporting Kansas City | 48c | 1,144$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.31 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Sporting Kansas City | 62c | 1,116$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.42 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Chicago Fire FC | 54c | 960.77$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.97 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Fire FC | 42c | 559.56$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.17 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Chicago Fire FC | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Chicago Fire FC | 54c | 486$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.56 | 139 | 48.9%68 W · 71 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Fire FC | 51c | 348.36$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.73 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Chicago Fire FC | 55c | 299.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Chicago Fire FC | 44c | 288$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.54 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Sporting Kansas City | 46c | 270.12$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.25 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Fire FC | 54c | 102.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.05 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…c7e8backed Chicago Fire FC | 56c | 98.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x303a…7c84backed Chicago Fire FC | 52c | 87.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Chicago Fire FC | 56c | 86.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…7191backed Sporting Kansas City | 50c | 68.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Sporting Kansas City | 46c | 65.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…3965backed Sporting Kansas City | 46c | 63.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…dab4backed Chicago Fire FC | 54c | 63.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Chicago Fire FC | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Chicago Fire FC | 42c | 46.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Sporting Kansas City | 46c | 40.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Chicago Fire FC | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Chicago Fire FC | 54c | 36.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Chicago Fire FC | 50c | 35.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Sporting Kansas City | 49c | 31.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Chicago Fire FC | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…73e0backed Chicago Fire FC | 37c | 29.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5a…669bbacked Chicago Fire FC | 71c | 28.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Chicago Fire FC | 50c | 28.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Chicago Fire FC | 46c | 26.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Chicago Fire FC | 55c | 24.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Chicago Fire FC | 54c | 21.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Sporting Kansas City | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Chicago Fire FC | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Chicago Fire FC | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)Chicago Fire FC won
- Spread: Sporting Kansas City (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.