Tennis · resolved market
Nordea Open: Gaston vs. Dzumhur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53ad9665be4dc1508536b32fb6f243451b2d668f9753c565a48c962283fbd9f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dzumhurof Gaston, Dzumhur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3503…b8babacked Gaston | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,800 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Dzumhur | 51c | 18,164$9,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,853.44 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Dzumhur | 63c | 2,381$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.95 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9454…6d22backed Dzumhur | 63c | 2,006$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Gaston | 42c | 309.36$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.93 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Gaston | 45c | 222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1212…a9f0backed Gaston | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4243…35d1backed Gaston | 39c | 192.46$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -6.4wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Gaston | 43c | 141.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…3ce7backed Gaston | 11c | 118.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Gaston | 43c | 87.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Dzumhur | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Dzumhur | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Dzumhur | 53c | 58.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Dzumhur | 60c | 57.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Dzumhur | 80c | 56.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…df87backed Dzumhur | 58c | 33.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 102 | 66.7%68 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Dzumhur | 67c | 22.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Dzumhur | 51c | 20.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Dzumhur | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.