Euroleague · resolved market
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Zalgiris Kaunas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53b68480201ec566f228179d5c8875577682cbd587cce404b34e936bf4c96914
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zalgiris Kaunasof FC Bayern Munchen, Zalgiris Kaunas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ad9…1ef5backed Zalgiris Kaunas | 50c | 3,369$1,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,685.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed FC Bayern Munchen | 49c | 1,418$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.82 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…4433backed FC Bayern Munchen | 54c | 1,113$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 51c | 732.24$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.44 | 91 | 36.3%33 W · 58 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Zalgiris Kaunas | 50c | 198$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed FC Bayern Munchen | 50c | 87.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked FC Bayern Munchen | 51c | 86.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked FC Bayern Munchen | 55c | 81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…e547backed Zalgiris Kaunas | 50c | 72.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked FC Bayern Munchen | 49c | 49.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a09…cdffbacked Zalgiris Kaunas | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed FC Bayern Munchen | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 53cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.