Mls · resolved market
Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53b7a6a75766c0ce77b318b99f2b8bffeb40e44305fc0f6d194fcf7f7949b0ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca5a…7e43backed Yes | 22c | 73,713$16,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,182.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed No | 78c | 26,056$20,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,732.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 78c | 17,037$13,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,737.96 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 14,539$11,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,182.93 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 78c | 5,382$4,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.04 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 78c | 4,500$3,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 78c | 1,687$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.71 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9542…4295backed No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 18c | 310$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 78c | 309$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 78c | 287.1$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 80c | 239.7$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 23c | 109.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c4…1f56backed No | 78c | 106.59$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 78c | 59.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…432abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2025-11-03?No won
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-11-03?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.