Mls · resolved market
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-11-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef0a6b62520a824171b8c6e40287466868eb57b5c60a8bc77ced6370ef1c74df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $144,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca5a…7e43backed Yes | 65c | 119,016$77,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,690.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed No | 35c | 41,760$14,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,616.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 35c | 40,000$14,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,000 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 35c | 35,372$12,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,427.76 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Yes | 63c | 5,536$3,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049.26 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 6c | 4,725$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.04 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 35c | 3,851$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.34 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed No | 37c | 3,243$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 37c | 2,703$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 64c | 2,654$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.18 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Yes | 65c | 1,549$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 63c | 1,000$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 63c | 793.18$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.18 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 9c | 604.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe49b…2943backed Yes | 65c | 600$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 64c | 528.46$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.34 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64ba…b7bfbacked Yes | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63fa…7ea4backed Yes | 62c | 496.57$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185e…7af6backed Yes | 79c | 252.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 37c | 216.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 35c | 210$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf8…a08abacked Yes | 78c | 199.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f76…e72bbacked Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d31…cb04backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0b…e2a3backed Yes | 64c | 140.63$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked No | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…2cbcbacked Yes | 64c | 87.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…91dcbacked Yes | 62c | 78.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…e6a5backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…b993backed Yes | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 17c | 64.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 37c | 59.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658d…859fbacked Yes | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bd…962abacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Yes | 63c | 46.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Yes | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e8…a236backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2e…c77bbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8f…3186backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb91…f766backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca9…b551backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8318…72dfbacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked No | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…7643backed Yes | 65c | 23.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Yes | 64c | 21.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…38e6backed Yes | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2025-11-03?this page
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2025-11-03?No won
- Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.