Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Víkingur vs. UMF Stjarnan end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53d1bd4b2eafd7fcb0dff851014536d07e04337b2280a2b29c6e5bbb733f7b98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 71c | 658$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.33 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 12c | 600$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.56 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 39c | 441.13$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.74 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 71c | 376.72$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.56 | 192 | 50.5%97 W · 95 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 69c | 255$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.75 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 75c | 184$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 56c | 154$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 17c | 153$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 152 | 40.8%62 W · 90 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 63c | 145$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.15 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…d55ebacked No | 54c | 140.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 127.92$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.66 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 110$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 25c | 106.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Yes | 23c | 86.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 75c | 84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 17c | 83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 170 | 59.4%101 W · 69 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…dba6backed Yes | 23c | 82.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0640…5ea2backed No | 27c | 79.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 16c | 61.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…fa2ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +60%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…0979backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…f911backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…a30bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255c…6e58backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7990…ea79backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +60%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…845fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +60%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 53c | 29.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | +11.3wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -11.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe01…b45dbacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Víkingur vs. UMF Stjarnan end in a draw?this page
- Will UMF Stjarnan win on 2026-07-16?No won
- Will Víkingur win on 2026-07-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.