Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana reach $240 September 29-October 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53f321031a150b78a8894d967eb80f286082b69ac5d2d47188e56dcca02dd4c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $183,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $184,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 35c | 20,164$7,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,086.3 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 11,095$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.57 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 63c | 10,000$6,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,743.22 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 73c | 5,406$3,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.95 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…95ffbacked No | 56c | 2,400$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…dca3backed Yes | 27c | 2,101$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.4 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 34c | 1,933$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.77 | 81 | 16%13 W · 68 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…750ebacked No | 47c | 1,360$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.9 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd1…4108backed Yes | 5c | 992.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 16c | 807$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed No | 57c | 600$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4a…1b1bbacked Yes | 58c | 600$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…51a5backed Yes | 30c | 529.79$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.27 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…e971backed Yes | 32c | 499.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed No | 58c | 477.94$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.94 | 32 | 84.4%27 W · 5 L | +7.9wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe221…1505backed No | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed No | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 37c | 375$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.75 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…2372backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ada…475bbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b4…128fbacked Yes | 51c | 234.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6024…bf2cbacked No | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2493…e05dbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd310…be53backed Yes | 49c | 160.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 67 | 77.6%52 W · 15 L | +12.1wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 46c | 134.8$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked Yes | 17c | 102.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf326…027fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd246…f066backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed No | 56c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…d10bbacked No | 60c | 81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bae7backed Yes | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes | 29c | 50.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…74f0backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d40…28e9backed No | 59c | 45.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce8…9827backed Yes | 34c | 38.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed No | 54c | 35.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…55c1backed No | 68c | 30.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4d…4c6dbacked No | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315d…5e72backed No | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0031…586ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7f…e27fbacked No | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana reach $240 September 29-October 5?this page
- Will Solana dip to $160 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Solana dip to $180 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Solana dip to $190 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Solana dip to $200 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Solana reach $220 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $230 September 29-October 5?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $250 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Solana reach $260 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Solana reach $270 September 29-October 5?No won
- Will Solana reach $280 September 29-October 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.