Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53f4108559b72eaa15305967810ee6f754e1d795880f36ea90f54f79e7244e9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,786 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 0c | 10,536$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 8c | 612.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 573.33$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 15c | 492.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 72c | 457$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.38 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 382.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 27c | 305.51$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 276.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 246.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 29c | 210.12$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 21c | 210$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 24c | 195.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 8c | 189.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 16c | 166.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 147.05$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 134$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 119.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 16c | 106.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed No | 74c | 105.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 74c | 101.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 26c | 100.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 29c | 99.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 78c | 95.59$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 88.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…a5cabacked Yes | 29c | 85.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 73c | 80.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc075…cdd2backed Yes | 18c | 79.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed Yes | 29c | 72.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 71c | 70.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 28c | 66.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 79c | 65.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 74c | 64.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 74c | 54.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 22c | 52.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…932fbacked Yes | 24c | 45.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 43.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…769bbacked No | 80c | 39.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 32c | 38.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 78c | 38.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7591…4e68backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…c28cbacked No | 73c | 30.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…3c9cbacked No | 71c | 28.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 76c | 26.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…3767backed No | 79c | 23.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 21.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 75c | 21.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 70c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.