TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,760

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,760 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x100a…c6cebacked No1c2,920$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.22554.3%11 W · 244 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+221.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed No1c1,254$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4985330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No7c726.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No12c618.69$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.431,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No18c505.69$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.138,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes38c486.82$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.7217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No19c415.78$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7176924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes65c366.8$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.4532157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes71c366.57$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.118740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x919d…f1b1backed Yes62c344.96$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.3810051%51 W · 49 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+29.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No4c303.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7836819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No39c247.15$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.813453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes38c210$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.481,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No59c191.15$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.053,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes34c153.98$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.4819426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a4…bba6backed No12c150$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4212223%28 W · 94 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No60c146.26$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.571,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7280…65d2backed Yes42c144.15$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1522023.6%52 W · 168 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No17c143.7$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No63c141.87$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.891967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No43c141.78$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.571,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes50c133.18$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.46,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No61c133.07$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.631,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b6a…8f52backed No66c133.05$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.353956.4%22 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1573…a727backed No8c131.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-41.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No11c127.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.597,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc474…d697backed Yes39c120.58$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.331816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-52.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes38c117.93$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.67,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed No63c116.73$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9727463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No31c109.36$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No17c105.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7558349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes39c103.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.75334%18 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes36c97.13$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5738840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes32c95.06$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.251,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8319…96f4backed Yes42c94.15$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.156717.9%12 W · 55 L-10.9wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-56.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf845…7c31backed No54c90.2$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.288957.3%51 W · 38 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No64c86.87$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.723,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No50c84.61$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.181,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes80c77.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.611,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed No56c66.75$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.413748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes36c62.05$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.733,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64bd…82cfbacked No66c60.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8418761%114 W · 73 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95aa…fe61backed Yes34c59.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.482425%6 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes35c58.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8133243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes36c56.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0121440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdb7…58f1backed Yes40c53.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.212218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4156…997ebacked Yes52c53.11$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.628636%31 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes41c48.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.526142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b7…9f11backed No66c48.04$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.713828.9%11 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Yes40c46.23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9213523%31 W · 104 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No46c46.14$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0457232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No67c45.52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3832652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes32c45.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.859520%19 W · 76 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed No39c43.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1719449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes56c42.27$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.631,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed No62c41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4212540%50 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No66c40.73$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8854966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No32c39.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x174c…4351backed Yes39c37.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.756028.3%17 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes34c37.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.771,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6754…9e72backed Yes34c37$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.422025%5 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f42…adbebacked Yes42c35.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.774158.5%24 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb701…1994backed No61c34.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.25959.3%35 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6850…d921backed Yes34c34.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.878111.1%9 W · 72 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa303…5ba1backed No66c33.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.231136.4%4 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick63cpaid-46.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No63c33.52$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9926458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No60c33.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8414071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x600c…8bd4backed Yes49c32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.36358.7%37 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.74736.2%17 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes48c29.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5633726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55f5…3767backed Yes47c28.08$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.932161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd03…932fbacked Yes41c26.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.754126.8%11 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes64c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.914346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x858b…a2cebacked Yes61c24.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6317144.4%76 W · 95 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No66c24.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1676371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2035…0c4ebacked No58c23.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.933658.3%21 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No59c23.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x299a…9e6fbacked Yes45c23$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.653033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36f1…847fbacked No59c22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7799949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2044…2fc5backed No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.652055%11 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick64cpaid+8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef08…efd3backed No64c19.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.75850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…bb8abacked No54c18.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-53.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No59c17.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.581,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x368c…e8d5backed No66c16.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.956243.5%27 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.