Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c116f44473854301d5d8df5b65f3952fcadd1021e8b8a035a0803829fb67b03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,760 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,920$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 1c | 1,254$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 726.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 12c | 618.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 18c | 505.69$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 486.82$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 19c | 415.78$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 65c | 366.8$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.45 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 71c | 366.57$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.1 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 62c | 344.96$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.38 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 4c | 303.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 39c | 247.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 38c | 210$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.48 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 59c | 191.15$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.05 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 34c | 153.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.48 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 12c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 146.26$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.57 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 42c | 144.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 17c | 143.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 63c | 141.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 43c | 141.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 133.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 61c | 133.07$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.63 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed No | 66c | 133.05$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed No | 8c | 131.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 127.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed Yes | 39c | 120.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 117.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 63c | 116.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 109.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 17c | 105.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 39c | 103.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 36c | 97.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.57 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 95.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 42c | 94.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 54c | 90.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 86.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 50c | 84.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 80c | 77.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 56c | 66.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 62.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 66c | 60.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95aa…fe61backed Yes | 34c | 59.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 35c | 58.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 36c | 56.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…58f1backed Yes | 40c | 53.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 52c | 53.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 41c | 48.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed No | 66c | 48.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 40c | 46.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 46c | 46.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 67c | 45.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 32c | 45.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 39c | 43.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 56c | 42.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 62c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 66c | 40.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 39c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 37.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…9e72backed Yes | 34c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 42c | 35.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 61c | 34.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 34c | 34.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa303…5ba1backed No | 66c | 33.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 63cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 63c | 33.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 60c | 33.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 48c | 29.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55f5…3767backed Yes | 47c | 28.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…932fbacked Yes | 41c | 26.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 61c | 24.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…0c4ebacked No | 58c | 23.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 59c | 23.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299a…9e6fbacked Yes | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked No | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2044…2fc5backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef08…efd3backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…bb8abacked No | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 17.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 66c | 16.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.