Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53f65fe7660f7786ccc28bdd8a6bedae76913b9941debc36df0f8423014eea86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 78c | 611.6$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 366.86$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.81 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 27c | 322.16$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.52 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 305.48$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 27c | 275.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 78c | 269.69$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 24c | 208.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 23c | 190.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 8c | 180.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 30c | 163.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 21c | 150.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 20c | 149.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 20c | 142.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…023dbacked Yes | 14c | 124.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 117.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf415…2871backed Yes | 25c | 112.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 62c | 111.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 103.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Yes | 19c | 99.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 19c | 92.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked Yes | 26c | 92.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 71c | 90.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 83.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 30c | 81.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 37c | 80.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes | 30c | 80.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 78c | 79.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…cce8backed Yes | 25c | 79.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 25c | 78.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 78.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked No | 76c | 78.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 73c | 73.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 68.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 24c | 65.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…ad6bbacked Yes | 24c | 65.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 65.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e2…b1a9backed Yes | 21c | 61.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…6b6ebacked Yes | 21c | 58.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked Yes | 23c | 55.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 64c | 51.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 78c | 51.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 76c | 49.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 37c | 49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 27c | 45.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 23c | 44.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…0049backed Yes | 33c | 44.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed3…0fe3backed No | 77c | 41.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…d642backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c0…bfdcbacked No | 80c | 34.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 73c | 33.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…71b8backed No | 77c | 31.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 65c | 30.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 63c | 30.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 23.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 70c | 23.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…c2a6backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 64c | 19.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 77c | 13.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 35°F or below on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 50°F or higher on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 36-37°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.