Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x540230ec0d93e35018e4d1f46f99b59bbd616362cddd4dd86ccfe085a3c40541
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…c1d0backed No | 1c | 1,409$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 3c | 1,260$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed No | 13c | 593.72$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 40c | 467$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.02 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 71c | 421.36$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.34 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 60c | 310$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 14c | 277.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.9 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…0807backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 235.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 209.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 12c | 188.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 34c | 182.87$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.03 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 175.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.76 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 75c | 158.83$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.66 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 7c | 154.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.4 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 149.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 23c | 148.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 12c | 146.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked No | 80c | 142.58$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.58 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed Yes | 8c | 141$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.39 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5d…2f18backed No | 57c | 140.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 36c | 120.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 76c | 115.01$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.86 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 27c | 111$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 18c | 108.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 65c | 100.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x763b…4777backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 44c | 84.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…7291backed Yes | 19c | 82.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.01 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 29c | 81.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 79.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 74c | 71.11$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…1ddcbacked Yes | 19c | 62.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.72 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd4…ebc4backed Yes | 68c | 55.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 80c | 51.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 48c | 37.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 52c | 29.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 48c | 23.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.