Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4e7b45df0a43a8aa6dc7142dfb17dbdcf9fdaa28370845a025c6e2e6873f80a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 3c | 19,005$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.2 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…0a6ebacked Yes | 0c | 11,468$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1192…634cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,778$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed No | 69c | 2,424$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.46 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 64c | 731.01$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.51 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 34c | 508.61$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.61 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 78c | 368.26$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.78 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 341.89$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.12 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 46c | 334.19$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.48 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 322.31$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 36c | 316.23$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.13 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 29c | 273.68$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 29c | 264.05$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.64 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae5d…05e8backed No | 76c | 235.09$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 227.92$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.83 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 37c | 225$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…ed49backed Yes | 52c | 222.7$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.98 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 195.72$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 173.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…71e6backed Yes | 34c | 150.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 150.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 56c | 146.06$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 141.07$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 43c | 122.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 37c | 120.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 57c | 119.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…3c05backed No | 65c | 115.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 62c | 113.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 68c | 109.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 11c | 103.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…6c0bbacked No | 55c | 103$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…c197backed Yes | 44c | 99.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed Yes | 31c | 97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes | 46c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 28c | 85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 31c | 78.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 63c | 72.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…c059backed No | 71c | 70.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 30c | 68.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 64c | 62.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 53c | 60.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…c3efbacked Yes | 34c | 58.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 57.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03bb…cb41backed Yes | 41c | 56.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 38c | 53.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 38c | 51.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 34c | 50.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 33c | 48.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 71c | 47.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 55c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 44c | 45.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 62c | 40.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 51c | 39.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…e02bbacked No | 52c | 38.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 58c | 37.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 30c | 35.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…6d40backed Yes | 51c | 31.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 47c | 31.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365a…0088backed No | 65c | 28.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 71c | 28.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 67c | 27.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…0807backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…023dbacked No | 54c | 26.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb2…6fa5backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d381backed No | 68c | 23.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e75…9311backed No | 50c | 22.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…a16fbacked No | 65c | 22.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 57c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 56c | 20.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 53c | 19.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dd…604dbacked No | 74c | 16.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.