Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8c4bca49624b71ff7c1f76bf2b20041fdb9bf1f0ebf078f13924f8bab71cbdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…9f3dbacked Yes | 28c | 2,750$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43df…06f0backed Yes | 26c | 2,730$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6875…a691backed No | 72c | 1,400$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…1a17backed No | 74c | 1,370$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab83…74adbacked No | 74c | 1,360$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8715…3f85backed No | 72c | 1,350$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 552.16$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.64 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 32c | 280.35$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.71 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 251.58$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 31c | 244.2$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.68 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 243$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.54 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…5ce7backed No | 67c | 178.91$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 30c | 164.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 138.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 13c | 120.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed Yes | 33c | 108$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 100.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…c197backed Yes | 38c | 93.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 91.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…a07bbacked Yes | 35c | 86.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 71c | 83.66$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 19c | 76.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 22c | 75.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 17c | 64.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 39c | 64.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 71c | 61.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 31c | 61.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 33c | 60.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 34c | 58.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 23c | 55.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 37c | 54.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 29c | 54.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…6c0bbacked No | 64c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 69c | 54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 53.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…644fbacked No | 59c | 50.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4a56backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…ee84backed No | 68c | 49.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 48.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 34c | 46.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed No | 70c | 44.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 32.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 64c | 31.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 65c | 28.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 68c | 27.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 68c | 26.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d8…7bbcbacked No | 66c | 23.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 68c | 23.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 22.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 66c | 17.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…5d3dbacked No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…f00dbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.