College Football · resolved market
Spread: Illinois (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x542ba48d538a2a2c457bd43ea26ec731ac2187c63191c1783dac9e57079b5738
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinoisof Illinois, Northwestern
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Northwestern | 45c | 10,144$4,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,564.69 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Illinois | 53c | 7,204$3,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,385.88 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Illinois | 55c | 5,804$3,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,611.98 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Northwestern | 47c | 5,579$2,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,621.78 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Illinois | 55c | 4,822$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,172.24 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Northwestern | 44c | 1,661$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.84 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Illinois | 56c | 1,265$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.51 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Northwestern | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Illinois | 80c | 613$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.6 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Northwestern | 20c | 613$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.6 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Northwestern | 45c | 398.6$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.37 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Northwestern | 46c | 364.86$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.62 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Northwestern | 46c | 302.84$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.7 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Illinois | 55c | 292.74$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.65 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Illinois | 54c | 288.07$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.51 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Northwestern | 44c | 249.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Northwestern | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Northwestern | 46c | 145$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Illinois | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Illinois | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…84c9backed Illinois | 55c | 24.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7d…c01abacked Northwestern | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Illinois | 55c | 19.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Illinois (-6.5)this page
- Northwestern vs. IllinoisIllinois won
- Northwestern vs. Illinois: O/U 44.5Under won
- Northwestern vs. Illinois: O/U 45.5Under won
- Northwestern vs. Illinois: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Illinois (-7.5)Northwestern won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.