College Football · resolved market
Spread: Illinois (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd44c4fa7d70344b6ab93f1121f615456d98307ae787e26021a6239e19f8f707
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northwesternof Illinois, Northwestern
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Illinois | 47c | 70,000$32,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,600 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Northwestern | 53c | 29,100$15,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,676.77 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Northwestern | 54c | 27,921$15,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,843.47 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Northwestern | 55c | 4,044$2,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,819.93 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Northwestern | 54c | 3,827$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,746.58 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Northwestern | 53c | 3,065$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.69 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Northwestern | 54c | 1,870$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.2 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Illinois | 46c | 1,056$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.53 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Northwestern | 53c | 943$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.21 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Illinois | 48c | 547.98$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.03 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Northwestern | 52c | 502.18$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.05 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Northwestern | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…dc15backed Illinois | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Northwestern | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Illinois | 47c | 250$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Northwestern | 52c | 208$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe08…10ebbacked Illinois | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Illinois | 46c | 181.85$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Northwestern | 51c | 157.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.33 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Illinois | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Northwestern | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Illinois | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Northwestern | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Northwestern | 55c | 87.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Northwestern | 55c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Northwestern | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Northwestern | 53c | 44.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…84c9backed Illinois | 48c | 24.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Northwestern | 55c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Illinois (-7.5)this page
- Northwestern vs. IllinoisIllinois won
- Northwestern vs. Illinois: O/U 44.5Under won
- Northwestern vs. Illinois: O/U 45.5Under won
- Northwestern vs. Illinois: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Illinois (-6.5)Illinois won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.