TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

South American Leagues · resolved market

Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-03-03?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,882
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,392

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,882 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb22…6478backed No47c19,148$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,999.629446.6%137 W · 157 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes68c13,722$9,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,393.041,98544.8%890 W · 1,095 L-44.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Yes53c7,320$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,470.067556%42 W · 33 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No28c6,465$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,785.368,10748.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L+26.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Yes52c4,486$2,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,131.617049.4%84 W · 86 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d2…d196backed No51c4,049$2,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,064.691850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Yes53c3,995$2,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,878.815850%29 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8790…010bbacked Yes78c3,901$3,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85721251.9%110 W · 102 L+14.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Yes59c2,767$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.8131349.8%156 W · 157 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed Yes50c2,650$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.88351.8%43 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No51c1,455$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.061,48748.7%724 W · 763 L-17.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No25c999.17$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.485728.1%16 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed No50c700$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35011245.5%51 W · 61 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes53c700$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32939853%211 W · 187 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed No16c700$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1156119.7%12 W · 49 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked No17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010242.2%43 W · 59 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Yes53c566.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.0421839.4%86 W · 132 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No48c372.92$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1795354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…679ebacked Yes74c359.46$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.468447.6%40 W · 44 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes49c318.94$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.43,40551.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ef…561cbacked Yes76c289.91$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Yes76c262.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8345746.8%214 W · 243 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No36c226.28$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6684943.8%372 W · 477 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8709…7d3dbacked Yes52c197.31$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.614542.2%19 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed No49c179.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8855155%303 W · 248 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Yes45c129.5$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.936546.2%30 W · 35 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed No16c124.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9928651.7%148 W · 138 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No26c118.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.482,38851.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L-9.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc6d…1e14backed Yes76c108.07$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.947100%7 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+53%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee26…9dcabacked No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253333.3%11 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0418433.2%61 W · 123 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes76c95.92$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.991,36652.4%716 W · 650 L+51.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a55…c349backed Yes76c90.32$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.681250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa633…1cf7backed Yes77c89.61$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed No55c79.97$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5817066.5%113 W · 57 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed No22c76.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9329747.1%140 W · 157 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes77c64.01$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.71,09155.6%607 W · 484 L-19.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4300…5c69backed Yes47c60.45$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0412443.5%54 W · 70 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa383…a2f0backed Yes75c59.21$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.665335.8%19 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf60b…c18ebacked No48c54.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0621345.1%96 W · 117 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf78…c4cabacked No23c53.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked No51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.516347.9%78 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed No26c48.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8635758%207 W · 150 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked No26c41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6617542.3%74 W · 101 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed No26c41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.665442.6%23 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x266d…083fbacked Yes77c40.73$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c3c…cf9cbacked No42c38.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.15650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2326…78d9backed Yes53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.741241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed No28c37.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.528443%122 W · 162 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked No51c35.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8767548%324 W · 351 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Yes50c33.08$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.472,61154.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e85…73eebacked Yes53c30.19$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.19520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-62.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed No48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.440%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf8f8…73b4backed Yes53c28.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.31752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.328569.4%59 W · 26 L+8.7wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+21.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes58c23.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1030841.2%127 W · 181 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02f4…4effbacked Yes78c21.79$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.794763.8%30 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc16a…450bbacked Yes75c20.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8280…a6d2backed Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.