South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-03-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x546ca2e99d7907816a132aed3df8aef01f2cecc278f1826fb8fa88c6473edf4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed No | 47c | 19,148$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,999.6 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 68c | 13,722$9,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,393.04 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Yes | 53c | 7,320$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,470.06 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 28c | 6,465$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.36 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Yes | 52c | 4,486$2,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,131.6 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d2…d196backed No | 51c | 4,049$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.69 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Yes | 53c | 3,995$2,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.81 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 78c | 3,901$3,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 59c | 2,767$1,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.81 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Yes | 50c | 2,650$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.8 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 51c | 1,455$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.06 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 25c | 999.17$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.48 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 53c | 700$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 16c | 700$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked No | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Yes | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 48c | 372.92$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Yes | 74c | 359.46$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 49c | 318.94$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.4 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…561cbacked Yes | 76c | 289.91$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 76c | 262.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 36c | 226.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.66 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Yes | 52c | 197.31$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.61 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 49c | 179.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Yes | 45c | 129.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 16c | 124.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 26c | 118.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6d…1e14backed Yes | 76c | 108.07$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 76c | 95.92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a55…c349backed Yes | 76c | 90.32$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa633…1cf7backed Yes | 77c | 89.61$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 55c | 79.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 22c | 76.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 77c | 64.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 47c | 60.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 124 | 43.5%54 W · 70 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 75c | 59.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 48c | 54.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 213 | 45.1%96 W · 117 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf78…c4cabacked No | 23c | 53.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 26c | 48.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked No | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed No | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266d…083fbacked Yes | 77c | 40.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3c…cf9cbacked No | 42c | 38.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…78d9backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 28c | 37.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 51c | 35.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 50c | 33.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…73eebacked Yes | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…73b4backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 85 | 69.4%59 W · 26 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 58c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Yes | 78c | 21.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc16a…450bbacked Yes | 75c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8280…a6d2backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Sarmiento win on 2026-03-03?this page
- Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-03-03?No won
- Will CA Sarmiento vs. AA Estudiantes end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.