Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5473db193bf45aadf6b58e69dd82494f0cb608e43a5f083716c7a20df42f2ade
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Heroic | 72c | 2,060$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.42 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Liquid | 29c | 987.4$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.18 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Team Liquid | 29c | 500$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…d241backed Team Liquid | 31c | 383.44$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.57 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Heroic | 70c | 364.82$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.56 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Team Liquid | 30c | 267$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.86 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cc…ce77backed Team Liquid | 29c | 148.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.46 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Team Liquid | 35c | 131.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.51 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Team Liquid | 36c | 106.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Heroic | 65c | 97.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Liquid | 33c | 86.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…d422backed Heroic | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StageTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.