NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Rangers: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x549576e111f76ca6b56ef0bb20b7f7626641f9c45f6cdc121cbafd4312bfe6a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,709 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Under | 26c | 1,090$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.56 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 74c | 1,039$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.54 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 26c | 999.99$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.31 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 75c | 446$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.27 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 75c | 375$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.5 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee4…5d00backed Over | 76c | 326$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c53…55e6backed Under | 25c | 309$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…4701backed Under | 25c | 293$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdae1…fa13backed Under | 25c | 274$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…ed3abacked Over | 75c | 266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6657…a1dbbacked Under | 25c | 249$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe178…f6debacked Over | 75c | 236$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 74c | 233$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.42 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fb…eac1backed Over | 75c | 221$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7a…d5e0backed Under | 25c | 170$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ce…abdfbacked Under | 25c | 169$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…dcc1backed Over | 75c | 161$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…05e7backed Over | 75c | 159$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…d697backed Over | 75c | 156$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…9ec9backed Under | 25c | 151$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…c24abacked Over | 75c | 146$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aff…3ebdbacked Over | 75c | 136$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a4…45e9backed Under | 25c | 135$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbba6…2d95backed Under | 25c | 107$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…4da1backed Under | 24c | 72.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 22c | 65.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Over | 77c | 63.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 71c | 56.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 29c | 52.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e67…6758backed Over | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 77c | 48.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 54 | 72.2%39 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Under | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 57c | 31.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…3501backed Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37f1…19a0backed Under | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Over | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 66c | 16.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Rangers: O/U 4.5this page
- Flames vs. RangersRangers won
- Flames vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flames vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flames vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.