Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x551c3271c19a3ccb1d5461df2356f0ee0a52e55ace00e5eb999c161324363a2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 20c | 2,417$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.74 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Down | 69c | 290.09$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.73 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Down | 65c | 284.03$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…89f9backed Up | 43c | 196.36$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Up | 48c | 175.75$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.94 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347d…8d28backed Up | 19c | 165$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x289c…af1abacked Up | 36c | 164.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 64c | 140.83$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f8…1a89backed Down | 72c | 135.59$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad5…c8a9backed Up | 42c | 131.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Down | 62c | 129.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…9592backed Up | 18c | 108.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed6…8782backed Up | 14c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…000cbacked Down | 66c | 75.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf8…37a8backed Down | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375a…dbd4backed Up | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…f61ebacked Up | 32c | 52.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb93…7080backed Up | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xebcd…d2efbacked Down | 68c | 17.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.