NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x553c0a27db91d4ce7dba9a281c41f616cb04c63e592557890978fb7acb7083d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Golden Knights, Devils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Golden Knights | 32c | 425.87$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.59 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Golden Knights | 34c | 327.21$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.21 | 158 | 39.9%63 W · 95 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Devils | 35c | 318.39$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.74 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Devils | 69c | 218.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 130 | 60%78 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Devils | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Devils | 70c | 171.84$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Golden Knights | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Devils | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Golden Knights | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Devils | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Golden Knights | 51c | 145$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Devils | 67c | 140$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Devils | 66c | 120.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Golden Knights | 33c | 92.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Golden Knights | 30c | 85.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Devils | 66c | 82.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c5…1f64backed Devils | 68c | 73.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…4167backed Devils | 50c | 68.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Golden Knights | 32c | 62.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Golden Knights | 30c | 56.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Devils | 68c | 44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 173 | 56.6%98 W · 75 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…a25cbacked Golden Knights | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Devils | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Devils | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Devils | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…4260backed Devils | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Golden Knights vs. DevilsGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Devils: O/U 5.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Devils: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.