NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Devils: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb9d8f7982395a04dfb9f5a67624c278551ed3f105f61a5c0973abef87cec659
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 48c | 2,167$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.34 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 51c | 737.84$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.27 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 726$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.26 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Under | 45c | 670.15$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.58 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 55c | 600$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.19 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 55c | 474.55$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 45c | 420.78$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.5 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 45c | 326.27$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.45 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Over | 55c | 195.6$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 111.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5d…4c40backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Over | 51c | 54.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…e22bbacked Under | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe3…5470backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Devils: O/U 5.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. DevilsGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Devils: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.