Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Jagiellonia Białystok vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x554e862b8772e84eaf7aac299e8750dcf1fa2cfc1a23271f573cc02065907764
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 36c | 770.5$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.94 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 60c | 503$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.82 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 60c | 363.64$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 44c | 310.52$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.21 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 215.88$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Yes | 29c | 132.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab3…c6bbbacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c44…a1aabacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a634backed Yes | 28c | 82.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Yes | 27c | 67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Yes | 27c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Yes | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +63%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 26c | 46.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed No | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed No | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 75c | 26.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed No | 75c | 20.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 61c | 19.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jagiellonia Białystok vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?this page
- Will Jagiellonia Białystok win on 2025-12-11?No won
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-12-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.