Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-12-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43926c75f8c35050b4b24f1fdce78b448717c0e7c8e4c913fc96f0ed8572b666
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,200 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,200 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked Yes | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked No | 51c | 1,923$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.66 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 48c | 1,666$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.81 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Yes | 41c | 850$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 38c | 704.88$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.57 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 77c | 608$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.32 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +12.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 52c | 473.76$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.36 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 51c | 290.86$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.34 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 75c | 290$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 28c | 273.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.81 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…4d1cbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 69c | 150$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d6…18afbacked Yes | 36c | 141.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 69c | 137$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 48c | 116.83$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 49c | 108.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +6.4wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab3…c6bbbacked Yes | 48c | 97.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b0…e8fcbacked Yes | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 53c | 89.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 37c | 89.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…7956backed Yes | 72c | 82.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1170…8398backed Yes | 48c | 82.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e9…5e83backed Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 51c | 70.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ae…ccefbacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9242…60babacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 51c | 51.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 52c | 47.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…eff7backed Yes | 43c | 43.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…7c0fbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 32c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa711…078cbacked Yes | 42c | 31.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a0…2fdcbacked Yes | 80c | 24.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…8277backed Yes | 68c | 23.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa626…5ca1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 52c | 19.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-12-11?this page
- Will Jagiellonia Białystok vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?No won
- Will Jagiellonia Białystok win on 2025-12-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.