Fifa International · resolved market
Will Bolivia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55877f10c1e9bbec9b48bca5a237230dc5f39d4ed23232bfc055b59ed158de2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f79…1608backed Yes | 32c | 7,025$2,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,786.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 68c | 5,073$3,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,449.77 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 68c | 1,139$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.07 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…a151backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked No | 68c | 885$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.65 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…9cbcbacked Yes | 16c | 870$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 31c | 650$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…a6c3backed Yes | 30c | 395$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…0e7abacked Yes | 29c | 345$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…965dbacked Yes | 29c | 315$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +141.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 68c | 307$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.63 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked No | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da5…bd38backed Yes | 29c | 245$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2b…2ff0backed No | 71c | 230$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 70c | 180.9$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd2…f20ebacked Yes | 30c | 140$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef90…da0ebacked No | 70c | 135$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9460…6bf9backed No | 70c | 130$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7836…9560backed Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…1994backed No | 71c | 120$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccd…b2b5backed No | 70c | 120$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…d03ebacked No | 71c | 120$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e59…2405backed No | 71c | 120$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd5…605abacked No | 71c | 120$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a5…a537backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 67c | 88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -8.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…316abacked Yes | 29c | 81.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…a356backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…b9b0backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6f…72f3backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 68c | 72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba21…0926backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 69c | 58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 464 | 53.2%247 W · 217 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe30…0e3bbacked No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…edbcbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bolivia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?this page
- Will Bolivia beat Uruguay?No won
- Will Uruguay beat Bolivia?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.