Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x559d4d38f51f4fdfafd6762979d0ca35248dddc27416e91661f3f20bc5adf739
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arnaldiof Tsitsipas, Arnaldi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa87b…1010backed Tsitsipas | 27c | 694.65$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Arnaldi | 73c | 250$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Arnaldi | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Arnaldi | 74c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Tsitsipas | 24c | 181.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Arnaldi | 72c | 174.54$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe0…8e55backed Arnaldi | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Arnaldi | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Tsitsipas | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tsitsipas | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…a5dfbacked Arnaldi | 77c | 14.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5)this page
- Arnaldi vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Arnaldi vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Arnaldi vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Matteo Arnaldi vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Matteo Arnaldi vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos TsitsipasMatteo Arnaldi won
- Set 1 Winner: Arnaldi vs TsitsipasArnaldi won
- Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5)Arnaldi won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.