Tennis · resolved market
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b64b693720ad586d70368412a022c9ad970bb49457a63e88c4f872ebc9c063d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under 3.5 | 32c | 22,192$7,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,173.24 | 4,090 | 39.8%1,628 W · 2,462 L | +95.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…9b1abacked Over 3.5 | 68c | 16,594$11,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,328.91 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 7,463$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,462.69 | 365 | 46.8%171 W · 194 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under 3.5 | 38c | 1,479$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.87 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under 3.5 | 33c | 550.06$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.91 | 431 | 42%181 W · 250 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Over 3.5 | 61c | 543.22$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.86 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under 3.5 | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 224 | 49.6%111 W · 113 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 453.52$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.2 | 351 | 32.2%113 W · 238 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 442$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.28 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Under 3.5 | 32c | 439.31$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 271 | 49.1%133 W · 138 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 376.27$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.93 | 191 | 56%107 W · 84 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Under 3.5 | 32c | 372$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.73 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 341.46$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.27 | 9,406 | 44.3%4,171 W · 5,235 L | -245.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 309.98$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.29 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 301.16$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 868 | 50.2%436 W · 432 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…4b27backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 236.64$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.51 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 220$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed Under 3.5 | 31c | 213.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4c…c962backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 199.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…0bbdbacked Under 3.5 | 33c | 181.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under 3.5 | 33c | 154.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over 3.5 | 68c | 151.84$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 166 | 45.2%75 W · 91 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Over 3.5 | 67c | 149.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.33 | 349 | 57.6%201 W · 148 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0806…4adabacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 138.18$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under 3.5 | 34c | 107.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 1,518 | 37.7%573 W · 945 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba17…5c67backed Under 3.5 | 32c | 105.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…c916backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 82.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 3.5 | 32c | 81.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 7,201 | 49.7%3,577 W · 3,624 L | +114.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under 3.5 | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…780ebacked Over 3.5 | 68c | 73.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…d420backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 73.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Over 3.5 | 69c | 73.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 1,742 | 50.2%875 W · 867 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c6a8backed Over 3.5 | 66c | 62.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Over 3.5 | 64c | 62.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 429 | 43.6%187 W · 242 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…f7a1backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 58.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 54.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,445 | 51.6%1,262 W · 1,183 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Over 3.5 | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 223 | 59.6%133 W · 90 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Under 3.5 | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over 3.5 | 69c | 49.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over 3.5 | 69c | 47.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 3,279 | 40.3%1,322 W · 1,957 L | +24.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over 3.5 | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…9646backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 42.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over 3.5 | 61c | 38.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 7,774 | 47.8%3,715 W · 4,059 L | +40.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under 3.5 | 38c | 37.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 130 | 63.1%82 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under 3.5 | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b2…45d7backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 29.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over 3.5 | 68c | 29.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf94e…4786backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 29.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78be…df11backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…ecb6backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 16.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Over 3.5 | 63c | 15.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 747 | 46.1%344 W · 403 L | -30.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Over 3.5 | 63c | 15.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 257 | 50.2%129 W · 128 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Matteo Arnaldi vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Arnaldi vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Arnaldi vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Arnaldi vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Matteo Arnaldi vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos TsitsipasMatteo Arnaldi won
- Set 1 Winner: Arnaldi vs TsitsipasArnaldi won
- Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5)Arnaldi won
- Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5)Arnaldi won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.