Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55a3dfa180a9d0d4239e4d9cdac71b67d256a28bc3a2724dc18d6285144bb22f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f16…063dbacked Yes | 38c | 729.04$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.52 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 35c | 349.26$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.01 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 344.69$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 33c | 323.83$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.09 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 36c | 246.93$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.82 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 238.49$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 182.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 155.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed No | 63c | 141.71$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.77 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 124.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 39c | 121.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 83.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 66c | 75.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 66c | 75.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 49c | 65.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed No | 57c | 64.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 63c | 60.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 34c | 60.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 66c | 56.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 68c | 52.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468e…5548backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 48.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 33c | 47.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…3255backed Yes | 51c | 46.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed No | 59c | 46.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 55c | 45.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…9757backed No | 68c | 42.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 68c | 42.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 41.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 37.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…5441backed No | 68c | 31.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 50c | 28.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 55c | 25.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 64c | 21.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 61c | 20.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…5ee6backed No | 66c | 19.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C or higher on April 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.