Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C or higher on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1abcf8a5ac4f9705700ca40cbcdb52b9cd673aca01b8a996258c670d0de4960d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 1c | 20,051$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.34 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 42c | 2,427$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.03 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…c916backed No | 58c | 1,438$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.93 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 9c | 1,171$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.51 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf393…d509backed Yes | 75c | 810.43$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.55 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +9.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed No | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f16…063dbacked Yes | 60c | 570.56$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.71 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8c…f5e2backed No | 73c | 463.23$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.25 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 46c | 344.09$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.87 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 48c | 327.69$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 312$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 48c | 290.25$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.44 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 248.79$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 43c | 188.61$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.38 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 44c | 177.82$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.17 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed No | 59c | 176.56$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.51 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 64c | 170$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 56c | 160.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 17c | 151$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.33 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 140.67$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.97 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 46c | 139.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 59c | 139.88$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 52c | 136.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 57c | 122.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 52c | 113.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 51c | 113.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 46c | 103.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 38c | 96.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.19 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 50c | 92.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 50c | 88.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 59c | 84.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 62c | 78.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…612fbacked Yes | 31c | 77.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 51c | 77.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 33c | 76.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 39c | 75.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 65c | 74.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 72.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 69.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 38c | 65.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…0a7ebacked No | 51c | 64.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 52c | 60.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 48c | 59.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd76b…00f4backed No | 41c | 58.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed No | 51c | 57.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 47c | 56.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 49c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed Yes | 37c | 53.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba1c…05cfbacked Yes | 38c | 52.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 50c | 50.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 56c | 50.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ec…4d4cbacked No | 49c | 49.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…a984backed No | 40c | 49.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 52c | 45.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 34c | 45.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 48c | 42.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 39.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 49c | 38.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 38.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae4f…cde1backed No | 51c | 36.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…109fbacked No | 43c | 34.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 42c | 33.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 56c | 32.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…3e3ebacked No | 48c | 32.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 51c | 31.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 53c | 31.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4008…194fbacked No | 74c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 70cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…8907backed Yes | 42c | 28.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 58c | 22.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 53c | 20.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ee…3c21backed No | 79c | 20.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.8wins | -0.57per pick | 77cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C or higher on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.