TailMyPicks
Market

Valorant · resolved market

Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Karmine Corpof Team Heretics, Karmine Corp
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,257
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,443

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,257 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x74a8…df59backed Team Heretics33c1,606$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.926847.1%32 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Karmine Corp67c1,598$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.2478162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Team Heretics30c451.99$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3416345.4%74 W · 89 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Team Heretics29c374.09$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4955152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Karmine Corp67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9962156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Karmine Corp71c236.81$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.676762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb882…fcabbacked Karmine Corp70c157.12$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed Team Heretics33c128.84$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5228541.1%117 W · 168 L-26.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Heretics32c110$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.254439.9%217 W · 327 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26be…805fbacked Karmine Corp71c106.12$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.781154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Team Heretics34c98.86$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6142840%171 W · 257 L-22.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d84…a7bdbacked Karmine Corp67c98.02$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.351353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked Karmine Corp71c81.22$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5522452.7%118 W · 106 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e8f…4374backed Karmine Corp71c80.37$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.316841.2%28 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfa8…6e47backed Karmine Corp71c66.27$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.221050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39dd…7af9backed Karmine Corp71c41.52$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.042157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbced…5808backed Team Heretics33c37.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.356066.7%40 W · 20 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5101…4a4fbacked Karmine Corp71c19.65$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.76858.8%40 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.