Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Rinderknech (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55acd2086b1fd5d75d6f1b91e52d98f402eb44aad2c8d3d425186bf4b4c7eeb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rinderknechof Tsitsipas, Rinderknech
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdeff…78f8backed Rinderknech | 63c | 785.71$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.76 | 435 | 47.4%206 W · 229 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…df04backed Rinderknech | 48c | 500$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 184 | 39.1%72 W · 112 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Tsitsipas | 37c | 397.98$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.25 | 2,137 | 36.8%787 W · 1,350 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Tsitsipas | 37c | 287.25$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.28 | 6,998 | 39.7%2,779 W · 4,219 L | -16.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Tsitsipas | 37c | 231.46$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 1,143 | 41.3%472 W · 671 L | +23.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…c8c1backed Tsitsipas | 61c | 221.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.41 | 390 | 55.6%217 W · 173 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Tsitsipas | 50c | 201.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.37 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed Rinderknech | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 164 | 67.7%111 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Tsitsipas | 18c | 142.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1,377 | 16.3%224 W · 1,153 L | -109.7wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Rinderknech | 62c | 104.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 247 | 51%126 W · 121 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Tsitsipas | 38c | 103.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 3,809 | 45.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L | -35.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Tsitsipas | 38c | 91.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Tsitsipas | 50c | 78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a46…c6a0backed Rinderknech | 63c | 77.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…f218backed Tsitsipas | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 356 | 53.9%192 W · 164 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked Rinderknech | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Rinderknech (+1.5)this page
- Arthur Rinderknech vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Rinderknech vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Rinderknech vs TsitsipasTsitsipas won
- Set 2 Winner: Rinderknech vs TsitsipasRinderknech won
- Swiss Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Stefanos TsitsipasStefanos Tsitsipas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.