Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55f573182f59aca08a22b218a85c9484a2385e16e9528da7c66724fd41483159
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…d450backed Yes | 45c | 145$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabc…d7babacked Yes | 45c | 144$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b6…38cabacked Yes | 45c | 143$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f83…7076backed Yes | 45c | 139$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846c…705fbacked Yes | 45c | 138$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…b38bbacked Yes | 45c | 137$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x541b…ff34backed Yes | 45c | 136$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd994…0c9fbacked Yes | 45c | 132$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d7…88f8backed Yes | 45c | 128$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…62b6backed Yes | 45c | 127$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f6…da0fbacked Yes | 45c | 127$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6da…dc19backed Yes | 45c | 126$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff3d…96afbacked No | 55c | 116$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb857…a1ddbacked No | 55c | 115$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfe…563dbacked No | 55c | 115$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9734…6d5bbacked No | 55c | 115$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f9…5172backed No | 55c | 113$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf19…9357backed No | 55c | 112$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa269…be11backed Yes | 10c | 111.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ac…23d2backed No | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ee…7d99backed No | 55c | 109$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6783…2eebbacked No | 55c | 107$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb936…cc15backed No | 55c | 105$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…50bcbacked No | 55c | 102$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632a…3f87backed No | 55c | 101$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b1…6e8ebacked No | 55c | 101$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…ce13backed No | 55c | 101$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd0…cf6cbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked No | 74c | 25.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 46c | 23.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 53c | 22.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 54c | 22.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of February?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $64 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $66 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $68 by end of February?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of February?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $72 by end of February?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of February?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of February?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of February?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of February?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $54 by end of February?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $56 by end of February?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $58 by end of February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.