Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a75fb926a701afbd23b4f31a1f60b248f6c317d70b44bbd296b4ce8091e45e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd652…ca4ebacked Yes | 9c | 6,710$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…fd9dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,219$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 11c | 1,685$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.44 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 9c | 1,312$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 13c | 1,303$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.38 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc571…9639backed Yes | 1c | 1,049$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575a…3023backed Yes | 15c | 700$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…99cfbacked Yes | 14c | 144.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…7f7bbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…c523backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 60c | 124.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 17c | 124$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad8…6be0backed No | 72c | 104.78$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf37f…9c30backed Yes | 19c | 100.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…dff2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd4…2da6backed Yes | 22c | 86.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0106…0e63backed Yes | 24c | 85.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…ae0fbacked Yes | 37c | 67.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…4a36backed Yes | 33c | 61.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…7062backed No | 65c | 49.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 76c | 33.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…6431backed No | 76c | 27.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 74c | 17.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of February?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $64 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $66 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $68 by end of February?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of February?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $72 by end of February?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of February?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of February?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of February?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $54 by end of February?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $56 by end of February?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $58 by end of February?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.