UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x562ce99f791392c8da38669b575d2c34028242b14d77b18c3f2a0d0236f13fac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,513 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 57c | 845.28$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.81 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 43c | 581$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.17 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 39c | 259.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.58 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf99…9840backed Under | 61c | 245.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.06 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 39c | 235.69$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.86 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 45c | 222.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.57 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9d24backed Under | 62c | 145.16$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…86b1backed Over | 43c | 101.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…9ac1backed Over | 43c | 89.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…67b0backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…2d13backed Under | 61c | 45.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Under | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…1027backed Under | 61c | 37.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9d…b730backed Over | 30c | 35.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +45%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Under | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…aab2backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…8497backed Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Under | 61c | 26.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…dbeebacked Under | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…49efbacked Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -7.6wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- UFC 326: Cody Brundage vs. Donte Johnson (Middleweight, Prelims)Donte Johnson won
- Will Donte Johnson win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.