Premier League · resolved market
Stoke City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5678996ca783f1cf6ad4c30940ec8f37659970448dfde78ff82f4841fe8eb20c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,449.99 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a43…565fbacked Under | 51c | 4,902$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,401.96 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 2,190$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.95 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 35c | 1,443$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.24 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 50c | 1,435$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 72c | 1,382$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 1,221$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.66 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 72c | 695$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.97 | 152 | 63.2%96 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 39c | 602.1$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.77 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 41c | 457.17$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.36 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…d943backed Over | 46c | 297.83$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 28c | 279.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 46c | 236.71$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.95 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 49c | 202.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 60c | 123.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 57c | 121.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 293 | 43.7%128 W · 165 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 222 | 44.1%98 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 52c | 98.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 51c | 81.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 208 | 64.9%135 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…340fbacked Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 59c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 45c | 47.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 240 | 62.5%150 W · 90 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 39c | 43.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…630fbacked Over | 50c | 40.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -7.3wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -41%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…c06dbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 57c | 30.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf6…c75bbacked Over | 47c | 25.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Over | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 56c | 21.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 170 | 47.6%81 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stoke City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Stoke City FC vs. Southampton FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Stoke City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Stoke City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Stoke City FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.