AI · resolved market
Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" during TBPN appearance on October 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56bf508becd494d82aa09ea5ffd9cb8b5c87df34e993217cad50d8276352d865
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 48c | 210$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.73 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 57c | 199.73$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 19c | 109$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc875…3d31backed Yes | 41c | 74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 70.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…aeddbacked Yes | 78c | 69.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944d…049abacked No | 40c | 49.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 25c | 49.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…2634backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes | 54c | 34.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.7wins | -0.34per pick | 55cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…0068backed Yes | 67c | 25.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 61cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe848…7348backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 76cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sam Altman say "Nvidia" during TBPN appearance on October 10?this page
- Will Sam Altman say "AMD" during TBPN appearance on October 10?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Browser" during TBPN appearance on October 10?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Claude" or "Gemini" or "Grok" during TBPN appearance on October 10?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during TBPN appearance on October 10?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "GPT" 7+ times during TBPN appearance on October 10?Yes won
- Will Sam Altman say "OpenAI" 5+ times during TBPN appearance on October 10?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Sora" 5+ times during TBPN appearance on October 10?No won
- Will Sam Altman say "Trump" during TBPN appearance on October 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.