Tennis · resolved market
Nakashima vs. Bellucci: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x571eaaf5c392651f7fd4c4dc1cf385fd4ef1e412799ca7b066d13e1fbca0903a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Over 2.5 | 36c | 142$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Over 2.5 | 36c | 94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Over 2.5 | 36c | 69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Over 2.5 | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Over 2.5 | 37c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Over 2.5 | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed Under 2.5 | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…77fdbacked Under 2.5 | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked Under 2.5 | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked Under 2.5 | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…6224backed Under 2.5 | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Under 2.5 | 64c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Under 2.5 | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Under 2.5 | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Under 2.5 | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Under 2.5 | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed Under 2.5 | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…afe6backed Under 2.5 | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Under 2.5 | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Under 2.5 | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Under 2.5 | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Under 2.5 | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Under 2.5 | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Under 2.5 | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nakashima vs. Bellucci: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Dallas Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Mattia BellucciNakashima won
- Nakashima vs. Bellucci: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5)Nakashima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.