Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59ad8a8c43a7c45467003e31f8d47ea55332338105d22d58d35fc9a1bc7ece4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Nakashima, Bellucci
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bellucci | 37c | 275.52$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Nakashima | 52c | 227.48$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.19 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Nakashima | 43c | 146$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Nakashima | 43c | 115$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bellucci | 19c | 83.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Bellucci | 57c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Nakashima | 43c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +8.8wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Bellucci | 54c | 45.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…09d6backed Nakashima | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Bellucci | 35c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Bellucci | 57c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Bellucci | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Bellucci | 57c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Bellucci | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Bellucci | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Bellucci | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Nakashima | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Bellucci | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Bellucci | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -46%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…7ed2backed Bellucci | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…d33fbacked Bellucci | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5)this page
- Dallas Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Mattia BellucciNakashima won
- Nakashima vs. Bellucci: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Nakashima vs. Bellucci: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.