Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x572b4f2551ede5824c3160139e371cac483868de2129e94548fbdd01a4488db0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,086 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 17c | 463.12$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 12c | 450.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 22c | 383.42$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 15c | 307$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 293.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.26 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 15c | 285.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 279.28$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…41f4backed Yes | 33c | 268.36$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 263.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 241.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 30c | 205.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 18c | 203.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c03…51e2backed Yes | 10c | 200.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 30c | 195.38$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 162.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 118.73$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 14c | 113.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…e524backed Yes | 35c | 110.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ad…b263backed Yes | 22c | 83.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e76…65bdbacked Yes | 23c | 83.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 32c | 79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 31c | 77.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 78c | 76.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 30c | 76.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3111…76f8backed Yes | 31c | 74.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 15c | 69.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 68.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 36c | 64.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 21c | 58.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…d0e4backed Yes | 35c | 50.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…d075backed No | 69c | 46.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 26c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 37c | 40.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 73c | 37.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 66c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked No | 67c | 28.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…aa58backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 22.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 18.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 78c | 18.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a70…2831backed No | 78c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 66c | 16.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 72c | 15.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.