TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,409
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,254

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,409 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa1b6…9db4backed Yes24c4,214$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24d8…a893backed Yes26c4,076$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28c9…fca0backed Yes24c4,022$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf19c…9560backed Yes26c4,007$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc78…9544backed Yes25c3,970$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf15a…0a68backed Yes28c3,938$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0fd…2d64backed Yes1c3,903$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222035%7 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-46.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x62d0…b894backed No76c1,425$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c7c…4adcbacked No76c1,400$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb397…d175backed No76c1,389$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ce…40e4backed No76c1,365$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ef1…5008backed No74c1,365$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61ac…e253backed No74c1,359$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34f0…a263backed No74c1,352$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb250…e5d1backed No75c1,350$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7104…b0b2backed No74c1,350$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f9f…85b5backed No74c1,332$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb57…7ed5backed No76c1,332$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7278…a54fbacked No72c1,330$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48a0…627ebacked No74c1,325$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4bf…541ebacked No76c1,325$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3181100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec6…f799backed No75c1,322$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x611e…86b4backed No72c1,319$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x941e…e3bcbacked No75c1,298$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1679…335dbacked No72c1,289$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes13c499.98$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes4c443.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3381234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes22c433.94$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1421436%77 W · 137 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes20c387.06$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.931,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes16c343.64$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9288628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes28c307$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.821,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c302.15$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c299.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes22c297.73$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7229642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x025b…1793backed Yes25c284.92$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9412632.5%41 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes8c280.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4852245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes22c230.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.158,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes26c215.19$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8266543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes10c208.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.181,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes17c195.27$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes11c188.49$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4634618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes30c184.59$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6433535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2929…15a2backed Yes24c176.83$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes15c171.09$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1226828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes15c166.53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3735843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes10c157.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.57,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed No80c147.5$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8738840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed No72c135$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3816355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes11c130$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.31,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf19d…9afabacked Yes14c120$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.44129.3%12 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8965…e0cabacked No78c116.34$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.53875%6 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes23c114.36$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.557,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bcc…77b0backed No79c113.72$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.981070%7 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4262…d125backed Yes20c100.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.133946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.846733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes25c99.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes11c99.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0425029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9532…7c44backed Yes18c98.21$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.033622.2%8 W · 28 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes23c95.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.743,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No36c91.38$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2c5…b9b6backed No79c81.4$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.862369.6%16 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick68cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes17c81.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9598738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes18c81.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6521235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No77c76.89$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.953,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes16c73.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x095b…6f34backed Yes19c72.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.859447.9%45 W · 49 L+10.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed Yes26c67.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.617364.7%112 W · 61 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd75…d07ebacked No76c67.64$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5515433.8%52 W · 102 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed No71c67$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.431,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…3de8backed Yes18c64.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.468521.5%147 W · 538 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf17d…66ddbacked Yes19c62.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes19c59.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.467038.6%27 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fef…13cebacked No76c58.95$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.954100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No75c58.13$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8191967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94e6…0a73backed Yes22c56.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.557841%32 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No67c48.37$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.834,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No78c47.07$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No80c43.93$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No76c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.672466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8506…2a45backed Yes26c39.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.132740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2518…8640backed No80c38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+19.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes33c31.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3532044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No79c31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5132760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7554966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.470770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1775…e3c0backed No77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.71464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x720a…0a49backed No76c24.17$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8111878.8%93 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b57…52c4backed No78c20.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.513935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-43.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c94…76c8backed No80c20.22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.062100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3482…b111backed No78c17.69$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d1b…4f09backed No68c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4410537.1%39 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No69c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.961,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71c3…84f0backed No74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.