Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbac74db1adf0471ebaa6c000b4839bb5ba2bd3647b17a0dd2b16afc834c65a55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,054 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4581…91f9backed No | 13c | 1,762$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.04 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 54c | 865.36$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 18c | 715.03$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.87 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 64c | 613.87$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.38 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 51c | 585.22$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.84 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 59c | 498.15$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.59 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 18c | 491.13$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 19c | 411.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 16c | 405.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 390.09$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 26c | 387.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 42c | 382.5$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.39 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed No | 3c | 345.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 319.06$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 46c | 307$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.99 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 40c | 299.36$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.97 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 57c | 282.18$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.22 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 66c | 225.19$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 209.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 31c | 203.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 53c | 202.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.59 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 46c | 202.89$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.43 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 46c | 199.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 56c | 193.89$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 67c | 192$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.57 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 37c | 189.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 47c | 188.22$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 56c | 179.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.34 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 8c | 175.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 175.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 73c | 169.07$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 68c | 168.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.19 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 74c | 168.01$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…86cbbacked Yes | 78c | 156.53$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…242abacked Yes | 64c | 155.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 17c | 147.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 144.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…41f4backed No | 65c | 138$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…d12abacked Yes | 75c | 133$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 127.97$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.19 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 22c | 125.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 39c | 124.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 43c | 120.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 70c | 107.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…f7dcbacked Yes | 70c | 107.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 72c | 104.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…cefdbacked No | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 35c | 99.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.58 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 15c | 98.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed Yes | 63c | 86.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 71c | 84.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…2a45backed Yes | 49c | 80.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 48c | 80.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 78c | 70.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 49c | 70.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…d075backed No | 65c | 66.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 78c | 64.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…58debacked No | 32c | 63.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 75c | 60.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 51c | 59.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 31c | 58.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 74c | 57.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 62c | 56.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed No | 19c | 56.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 28c | 55.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 33c | 55.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed No | 24c | 51.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 57c | 50.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe6…e1bbbacked No | 40c | 49.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 36c | 44.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 34c | 44.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…e9f4backed Yes | 65c | 43.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed No | 25c | 43.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 39c | 41.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 39c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…fe21backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 72cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 49c | 40.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…ff3bbacked Yes | 34c | 39.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 42c | 39.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 65c | 37.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 67c | 37.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 40c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a81…b7e1backed Yes | 55c | 32.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 62c | 32.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 52c | 32.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…2805backed Yes | 37c | 31.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…aa58backed No | 61c | 30.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf466…088fbacked Yes | 69c | 30.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc695…b416backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 66c | 27.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e3…51a3backed Yes | 57c | 26.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…e3c0backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.