South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Lanús vs. LDU de Quito end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5741c52b334c88d6013c320aee8cd635a9ec19e68cfe4154d0fc33fba397a79d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31cb…a34bbacked No | 75c | 1,537$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.26 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 25c | 1,498$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.38 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 55c | 1,497$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.3 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 50c | 864.29$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.13 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 59c | 554.92$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.05 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7673…fa40backed Yes | 25c | 464$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 11c | 327.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 75c | 186$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Yes | 27c | 166.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 24c | 136.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c1…d9febacked Yes | 27c | 128.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked No | 64c | 90.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked No | 76c | 83.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 53c | 77.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 26c | 73.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 54c | 55.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 74c | 54.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 74c | 52.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 50.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 45c | 44.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 33c | 41.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed No | 47c | 40.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…af63backed Yes | 53c | 29.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…b8d6backed Yes | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 75c | 26.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 197 | 61.9%122 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 41c | 26.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked No | 57c | 23.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 76c | 16.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Lanús vs. LDU de Quito end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Lanús win on 2026-04-28?Yes won
- Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-04-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.