Asian League · resolved market
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5741cec25afe9b9a2430a3761756c968fef87ef3ef41a4e9e8c7e5545260e4c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 1,996$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.74 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 39c | 1,056$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.41 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b0…7b16backed Over | 56c | 888.96$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba78…273ebacked Over | 44c | 697$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +91%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…44dcbacked Under | 56c | 547$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 56c | 418.87$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.93 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…eb43backed Over | 50c | 200.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.58 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 20c | 95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Under | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 57c | 61.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e63…2d79backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 26c | 41.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…2e4dbacked Over | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 39c | 26.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…e66abacked Over | 57c | 22.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 1.5this page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Shimizu S-Pulse won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Shimizu S-Pulse won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.