Asian League · resolved market
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b6b95d6af2f0d4502c6b93b1ccefb8128778ea59c1c002efcddb261d80317c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Over | 49c | 999.91$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.95 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Over | 49c | 964.63$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.67 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Under | 51c | 874.59$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.5 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb4…90f3backed Over | 51c | 391.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 60c | 227.72$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.51 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 42c | 135.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 52c | 106.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 48c | 79.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Over | 51c | 78.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 63c | 74.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 19c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 47.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 49c | 40.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 48c | 36.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…a2c0backed Over | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa1…d1afbacked Over | 49c | 31.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 28.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 75c | 26.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 46c | 25.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e74…fcabbacked Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…d02cbacked Under | 52c | 24.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…5a7fbacked Over | 50c | 24.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe629…800dbacked Over | 48c | 24.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf210…59afbacked Over | 50c | 23.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Over | 49c | 23.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…673ebacked Over | 50c | 23.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfb…c895backed Under | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef0…2af3backed Under | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf09c…35a6backed Over | 51c | 22.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 46c | 22.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Over | 46c | 22.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…e1c1backed Over | 48c | 22.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0c…a782backed Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e9…3458backed Under | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9026…160fbacked Over | 50c | 20.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…69e4backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f80…ac1cbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 74c | 16.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 2.5this page
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 3.5Under won
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Shimizu S-Pulse won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Shimizu S-Pulse won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.