Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57445ecd9cb214c107de7fb6b4b7102f0b9696c951c2b25618a15dd7b98d2abc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Rybakina, Shnaider
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Rybakina | 71c | 1,380$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.1 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d9…3d1fbacked Rybakina | 73c | 1,304$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.2 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Shnaider | 29c | 770.55$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.78 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Shnaider | 31c | 694.37$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.76 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796c…49dbbacked Rybakina | 77c | 512.57$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.89 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Shnaider | 22c | 407.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 316 | 56.3%178 W · 138 L | +19.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Shnaider | 24c | 397.67$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…e1f5backed Shnaider | 28c | 394.56$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.17 | 214 | 51.4%110 W · 104 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Shnaider | 33c | 279.53$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.14 | 357 | 30.5%109 W · 248 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Shnaider | 42c | 258.23$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Rybakina | 76c | 252.09$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 372 | 57.5%214 W · 158 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Rybakina | 66c | 210.66$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rybakina | 74c | 198.68$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Rybakina | 70c | 187.83$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…6679backed Rybakina | 58c | 168.09$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.61 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Shnaider | 31c | 157.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Rybakina | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Shnaider | 32c | 120.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 464 | 39.7%184 W · 280 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Shnaider | 42c | 74.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcf…f174backed Shnaider | 23c | 58.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Shnaider | 42c | 55.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Rybakina | 58c | 53.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Shnaider | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Rybakina | 58c | 43.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 486 | 37.7%183 W · 303 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Shnaider | 44c | 39.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Rybakina | 58c | 37.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 265 | 48.7%129 W · 136 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…f792backed Rybakina | 79c | 37.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Shnaider | 37c | 34.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 361 | 35.7%129 W · 232 L | -35.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Rybakina | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 427 | 45.7%195 W · 232 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Shnaider | 42c | 30.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…c9b6backed Rybakina | 76c | 29.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x525d…1f1bbacked Rybakina | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Rybakina | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Rybakina | 74c | 23.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1300…d632backed Rybakina | 58c | 21.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…bd20backed Rybakina | 58c | 18.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5)this page
- Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Diana ShnaiderElena Rybakina won
- Rybakina vs. Shnaider: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Rybakina vs. Shnaider: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.