South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-03-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57a42f4da33fb2c328111ca13ad0e44245f213bc248b2b02b3a1b1e38361fae0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,491 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 9c | 6,871$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.49 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 22c | 3,050$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.99 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 1,265$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.34 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 23c | 500$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.15 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 416$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 77c | 349.8$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.45 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 3c | 334.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39b…eb0dbacked No | 79c | 264.91$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b67…525dbacked Yes | 8c | 246.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 12c | 236.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 76c | 173.26$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…cec1backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 78c | 165$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 21c | 149.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc667…e68dbacked Yes | 10c | 128.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc39…1564backed No | 78c | 128.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e07…0163backed Yes | 23c | 87.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…c3d5backed Yes | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Yes | 22c | 68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 77c | 48.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008f…6d21backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3d…fd74backed No | 78c | 27.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…d6c6backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 213 | 59.6%127 W · 86 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-03-22?this page
- Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?No won
- Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-03-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.