NFL · resolved market
Spread: PHI (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57b382a6d24ee757bb0d4ad3f1ae7c47a461b99c16721b006aae565ecb3c60df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PHIof PHI, LA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked LA | 48c | 50,135$24,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,064.91 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked PHI | 52c | 36,854$19,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,697.41 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed LA | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,399.99 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked PHI | 48c | 19,025$9,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,890.52 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed PHI | 50c | 11,272$5,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,585.03 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked PHI | 52c | 4,824$2,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,315.68 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed PHI | 52c | 4,423$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,123.08 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed LA | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed LA | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb511…dedfbacked PHI | 48c | 2,120$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.33 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked LA | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…5019backed PHI | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f82cbacked LA | 61c | 1,472$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed PHI | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed LA | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked LA | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked LA | 48c | 999.99$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked LA | 50c | 817$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.57 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed PHI | 40c | 703.62$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.19 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed LA | 52c | 700$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed LA | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked LA | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed PHI | 39c | 661.65$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.6 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked LA | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed PHI | 52c | 450$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfe…4341backed PHI | 52c | 427.66$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac0…b10abacked PHI | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked PHI | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed LA | 66c | 370$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.87 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed LA | 48c | 324.37$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.7 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53f1…9434backed LA | 52c | 307.79$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed LA | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked LA | 50c | 294$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked PHI | 50c | 221$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked PHI | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c3…3242backed LA | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed LA | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed LA | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…9926backed PHI | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed PHI | 20c | 192.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.07 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed LA | 49c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked LA | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e8…ad4bbacked PHI | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 51cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed PHI | 52c | 77.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked PHI | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…fa4ebacked LA | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed LA | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e14…fb6bbacked PHI | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…fadebacked PHI | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2082…c686backed LA | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked LA | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed PHI | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe6…5cdabacked PHI | 51c | 25.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked LA | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -9.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked PHI | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae25…bc16backed LA | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: PHI (-3.5)this page
- LA vs. PHI: O/U 44.5Over won
- Rams vs. EaglesEagles won
- Spread: PHI (-1.5)PHI won
- Spread: PHI (-4.5)PHI won
- Spread: PHI (-6.5)PHI won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.