Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Cirstea (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57c614517f1754925aed5abf402ccbd6b23fa3586773f1dd3868b2d41b1a53e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cirsteaof Cirstea, Wang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10fb…fa63backed Cirstea | 61c | 878$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2f…499cbacked Cirstea | 62c | 812.1$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.1 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Cirstea | 76c | 811.21$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.25 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Wang | 39c | 697.49$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.02 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Wang | 38c | 561.88$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.51 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Wang | 10c | 503.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 308 | 27.6%85 W · 223 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Wang | 43c | 449.84$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.43 | 104 | 40.4%42 W · 62 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Wang | 41c | 428.85$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.41 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Wang | 37c | 424$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.88 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Cirstea | 59c | 420.34$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.34 | 589 | 31.1%183 W · 406 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Cirstea | 62c | 355.12$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.83 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Cirstea | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Wang | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 580 | 45.9%266 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…87adbacked Cirstea | 60c | 171.67$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Wang | 42c | 166.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 62 | 14.5%9 W · 53 L | -11.2wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Wang | 41c | 158.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a3…f6a6backed Wang | 42c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…33c6backed Wang | 41c | 134.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Wang | 38c | 98.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Wang | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Cirstea | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d6…b5c9backed Cirstea | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Cirstea | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 394 | 69%272 W · 122 L | +27.8wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Cirstea | 59c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb700…224abacked Cirstea | 76c | 17.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Cirstea | 61c | 16.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 184 | 47.3%87 W · 97 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Cirstea (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5)this page
- Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu WangSorana Cirstea won
- Set 1 Winner: Cirstea vs WangCirstea won
- Sorana Cirstea vs. Xiyu Wang: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.