Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57cd90634c88d9a9be4019a012f7ab9b54b951ee0c72ebd595c1e93dd642ad2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pigeonsof Alliance Guardians, Pigeons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Pigeons | 75c | 5,000$3,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.86 | 521 | 55.5%289 W · 232 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Alliance Guardians | 25c | 4,360$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.99 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Pigeons | 60c | 366.15$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.46 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Pigeons | 63c | 351.31$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.32 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Alliance Guardians | 44c | 291$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.68 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Alliance Guardians | 29c | 185$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Alliance Guardians | 37c | 167.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…a117backed Alliance Guardians | 32c | 153.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Alliance Guardians | 25c | 152$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 139 | 33.1%46 W · 93 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Alliance Guardians | 8c | 140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 697 | 22.8%159 W · 538 L | -94.4wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Pigeons | 68c | 137.07$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Pigeons | 74c | 111.24$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 777 | 44%342 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9997…a2bcbacked Alliance Guardians | 33c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Pigeons | 70c | 94.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 700 | 43.7%306 W · 394 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Alliance Guardians | 37c | 78.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 155 | 35.5%55 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Pigeons | 77c | 75.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Alliance Guardians | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 112 | 37.5%42 W · 70 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Alliance Guardians | 31c | 65.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcb…9f08backed Alliance Guardians | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed Alliance Guardians | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xade6…c465backed Alliance Guardians | 28c | 52.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 653 | 47.3%309 W · 344 L | -18.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Pigeons | 73c | 50.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 420 | 51.9%218 W · 202 L | -21.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34c6…be53backed Alliance Guardians | 36c | 49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 47cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Pigeons | 70c | 46.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 848 | 38.2%324 W · 524 L | -50.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Pigeons | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 421 | 40.4%170 W · 251 L | -26.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Pigeons | 58c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group StageAlliance Guardians won
- Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 WinnerAlliance Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.