Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-09-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57f4ad0f3ea3db5009c481c65ccdcb3155f27a148c925d5f609bfce5acc9b252
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 11c | 17,128$1,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,874.05 | 464 | 54.3%252 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 78c | 3,500$2,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 21c | 2,749$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.24 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d7…e193backed Yes | 80c | 2,065$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Yes | 70c | 929.08$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.08 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x968a…6842backed Yes | 77c | 650$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed No | 24c | 480$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 230 | 21.7%50 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 77c | 383$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.11 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 21c | 302.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 294 | 25.9%76 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 79c | 254$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 327 | 39.4%129 W · 198 L | -22.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b59…6445backed Yes | 79c | 253.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 21c | 201.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 23c | 131$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea6…eab2backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…e4c7backed Yes | 79c | 126.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 22c | 99.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 79c | 89.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 22c | 74.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 169 | 53.8%91 W · 78 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 21c | 71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 78c | 69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c7…e539backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked Yes | 67c | 59.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked No | 22c | 51.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 495 | 28.7%142 W · 353 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc487…dc86backed Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945e…353dbacked Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02aa…9c2abacked Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…c102backed Yes | 72c | 31.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 70c | 28.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b0…e8fcbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0683…8689backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…f9e9backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-09-27?this page
- Will AFC Ajax vs. NAC Breda end in a draw?No won
- Will NAC Breda win on 2025-09-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.